I can't really remember at which point I developed an interest in contracts, salary cap and all the rules and regulations that go along with this kind of stuff. It was probably a few years ago when I slowly turned into a "hardcore fan", I would say - before that, I only cared about which team had which players on their NHL team. I knew there was a draft, I knew that most of the players were put on of those "junior teams" before they hit the big show, but I had no idea about the difference between WHL/OHL/QMJHL kids, European prospects and college-bound players. Sure enough, the 2005 lockout helped me realize just how tricky all that stuff behind the scenes can actually be.
Once you get a grasp of the system, it's quite easy to understand. Players from the three major junior leagues have to get signed within two years, as well as European players (this rule has since been changed to four years in the new CBA). College-bound players can only be signed if they turn pro immediately, they stay in college for a max of four years and if they do so, NHL teams can sign them until August 15 in the fourth year after the draft, the length of the ELC is determined by the player's age. So far, so good.
But of course, as in most situations in life that are regulated by contracts and handled by lawyers, there are loopholes that shake up the system from time to time. In terms of college prospects, this shake up came twice during the previous CBA that ran from 2005 to 2012, at the hands of Blake Wheeler (drafted by Phoenix in 2004) and Justin Schultz (drafted by Anaheim in 2008). Both players did not immediately go to college after being drafted, but instead played another season in the USHL (Wheeler) and the BCHL (Schultz) before enrolling to the University of Minnesota (Wheeler) and Wisconsin (Schultz), respectively. This meant that both players were four years away from their draft year when they eventually finished their third year at college, meaning that they were able to become unrestricted free agents almost immediately if they decided to leave school a year early, whereas the NHL teams that drafted them would have kept their rights for another year if they stayed at school. Wheeler and Schultz opted for the first choice and left their original teams empty-handed, signing with the Boston Bruins (Wheeler) and Edmonton Oilers (Schultz), respectively. Whether or not this possibility was removed in the new CBA is unclear.
The other nightmare for a franchise is when a player decides to not sign an ELC with that team. CHL prospects and European players barely opt to do that, since they would have to re-enter the draft and again would have no control over their destiny. However, the Calgary Flames have suffered such a setback two years ago when rearguard Tim Erixon, selected in the first round two years prior, refused to sign a contract with the Flames. Officially, Erixon and his agent were worried about playing time, but that already sounded like a lame excuse back then und has since been disproved, as Derek Smith made the team out of camp a couple months later. A more realistic scenario is that Erixon wanted to play for the New York Rangers, the former team of his father. Flames GM Jay Feaster was subsequently forced to trade Erixon to New York - a deal that has since been met with excitement by the fans because the Flames came away with three solid young prospects in Roman Horak, Tyler Wotherspoon and Markus Granlund.
Just a few weeks ago, the Flames were at the other end of the drama, with Hobey Baker finalist Corban Knight refusing to sign a contract with the Florida Panthers. The Flames ended up trading a 4th round pick for him and signing him to a two-year ELC, what seems like a very good move at this point.
Only time will tell if the Flames got the better end of the Erixon and Knight trades, but it's moments like the Knight situation that make Flames fans cringe. Right now, the Flames possess several prospects in the college ranks, including 2012 first rounder Mark Jankowski and goaltender Jon Gillies. But it's the smallish 4th round pick from the 2011 draft that has fans concerned, as it seems. Given that Johnny Gaudreau is attending Boston College and John Weisbrod stated that the Bruins were eager to draft him, one has no difficulties envisioning an unpleasant scenario somewhere down the road. Trade rumours like the recent Tyler Seguin talks will only fuel speculation among fans who, after the draft and the free agent frenzy, are stuck in a summer slump as it seems.
In an attempt to "estimate the risk" of a college player refusing to sign, I decided to take a look at college-bound players taken in the NHL drafts between 2005 and 2009. This seemed like a good time frame - 2005 marks the beginning of the previous CBA and drafts later than 2009 are irrelevant for this exercise due to the four years of NCAA eligibility. I also decided to limit this exercise to the first three rounds of the drafts - mainly for time reasons, but also due to the fact that the number of busts is a lot higher in the later rounds and high-end players with enough options to forfeit a contract are pretty rare once you hit triple-digits. Excluded from the exercise is Scott Winkler, a Stars 3rd rounder from 2009 who sadly passed away last month. Here are the results:
2005
1st round # 3 overall - CAR - D Jack Johnson - traded to Kings, signed there in 2007
1st round # 7 overall - CHI - F Jack Skille - signed with Blackhawks in 2007
1st round # 9 overall - OTT - D Brian Lee - signed with Senators in 2007
1st round #14 overall - WSH - D Sasha Pokulok - signed with Capitals in 2006
1st round #24 overall - STL - F T.J. Oshie - signed with Blues in 2008
1st round #25 overall - EDM - F Andrew Cogliano - signed with Oilers in 2007
1st round #27 overall - WSH - D Joe Finley - signed with Capitals in 2009
1st round #28 overall - MIN - D Matt Niskanen - signed with Stars in 2007
2nd round #34 overall - COL - F Ryan Stoa - signed with Avalanche in 2009
2nd round #36 overall - EDM - D Taylor Chorney - signed with Oilers in 2008
2nd round #38 overall - NJD - G Jeff Frazee - signed with Devils in 2008
2nd round #42 overall - DET - F Justin Abdelkader - signed with Red Wings in 2008
2nd round #44 overall - COL - F Paul Stastny - signed with Avalanche in 2006
2nd round #47 overall - COL - F Tom Fritsche - signed with Avalanche in 2008
2nd round #51 overall - VAN - F Mason Raymond - signed with Canucks in 2007
2nd round #53 overall - ATL - F Andrew Kozek - signed with Thrashers in 2009
2nd round #54 overall - CHI - F Dan Bertram - signed with Blackhawks in 2008
2nd round #58 overall - CAR - D Nate Hagemo - bust, never even played in AHL
2nd round #60 overall - LAK - D T.J. Fast - left college, traded to Blues and signed in 2008
2nd round #61 overall - PIT - D Michael Gergen - bust, never even played in AHL
3rd round #63 overall - ANA - F Jason Bailey - left college, signed with Ducks in 2008
3rd round #72 overall - LAK - G Jonathan Quick - signed with Kings in 2007
3rd round #76 overall - NYI - F Shea Guthrie - bust, never even played in AHL
3rd round #85 overall - STL - G Ben Bishop - signed with Blues in 2008
3rd round #86 overall - EDM - F Robby Dee - bust, only 3 AHL games
3rd round #88 overall - COL - F T.J. Hensick - signed with Avalanche in 2007
2006
1st round # 1 overall - STL - D Erik Johnson - signed with Blues in 2007
1st round # 3 overall - CHI - F Jonathan Toews - signed with Blackhawks in 2007
1st round # 5 overall - BOS - F Phil Kessel - signed with Bruins in 2006
1st round # 7 overall - NYI - F Kyle Okposo - signed with Islanders in 2008
1st round #19 overall - ANA - D Mark Mitera - signed with Ducks in 2009
1st round #20 overall - MTL - D David Fischer - bust, only 2 AHL games
1st round #29 overall - PHX - D Chris Summers - signed with Coyotes in 2010
2nd round #32 overall - PIT - D Carl Sneep - signed with Penguins in 2010
2nd round #39 overall - PHI - F Andreas Nodl - signed with Flyers in 2008
2nd round #42 overall - PHI - D Mike Ratchuk - signed with Flyers in 2008
2nd round #45 overall - EDM - D Jeff Petry - signed with Oilers in 2009
2nd round #52 overall - WSH - D Keith Seabrook - left college, traded to Flames and signed in 2009
2nd round #56 overall - NSH - F Blake Geoffrion - signed with Predators in 2010
2nd round #61 overall - CHI - D Simon Danis-Pepin - signed with Blackhawks in 2009
2nd round #63 overall - CAR - D Jamie McBain - signed with Hurricanes in 2009
3rd round #65 overall - PIT - D Brian Strait - signed with Penguins in 2009
3rd round #68 overall - OTT - D Eric Gryba - signed with Senators in 2010
3rd round #74 overall - LAK - G Jeff Zatkoff - signed with Kings in 2008
3rd round #78 overall - TBL - D Kevin Quick - signed with Lightning in 2008
3rd round #79 overall - PHI - F Jonathan Matsumoto - signed with Flyers in 2007
3rd round #80 overall - ATL - F Michael Forney - signed with Thrashers in 2009
3rd round #81 overall - COL - F Mike Carman - signed with Avalanche in 2010
3rd round #89 overall - CGY - F Aaron Marvin - bust, only 5 AHL games
2007
1st round # 2 overall - PHI - F James van Riemsdyk - signed with Flyers in 2009
1st round # 3 overall - PHX - F Kyle Turris - signed with Coyotes in 2008
1st round #12 overall - MTL - D Ryan McDonagh - traded to Rangers and signed in 2010
1st round #14 overall - COL - D Kevin Shattenkirk - signed with Avalanche in 2010
1st round #18 overall - STL - D Ian Cole - signed with Blues in 2010
1st round #21 overall - EDM - F Riley Nash - traded to Hurricanes and signed in 2010
1st round #22 overall - MTL - F Max Pacioretty - signed with Canadiens in 2008
1st round #25 overall - VAN - F Patrick White - bust, never played a pro game in NA
1st round #27 overall - DET - D Brendan Smith - signed with Red Wings in 2010
1st round #28 overall - SJS - D Nick Petrecki - signed with Sharks in 2009
1st round #29 overall - OTT - F Jim O'Brien - left college, signed with Senators in 2009
2nd round #35 overall - BOS - D Tommy Cross - signed with Bruins in 2012
2nd round #38 overall - CHI - F Bill Sweatt - didn't sign with Chicago, later signed with Canucks in 2010
2nd round #44 overall - STL - F Aaron Palushaj - signed with Blues in 2009
2nd round #45 overall - COL - D Colby Cohen - signed with Avalanche in 2010
2nd round #46 overall - WSH - D Theo Ruth - traded to Blue Jackets and signed in 2010
2nd round #50 overall - DAL - F Nico Sacchetti - bust, never played a pro game in NA
2nd round #53 overall - CBJ - D Will Weber - signed with Blue Jackets in 2012
2nd round #55 overall - COL - F T.J. Galiardi - left college, signed with Avalanche in 2008
2nd round #57 overall - NJD - F Mike Hoeffel - signed with Devils in 2011
3rd round #68 overall - CBJ - F Jake Hansen - signed with Blue Jackets in 2012
3rd round #76 overall - NYI - F Jason Gregoire - used "Schultz loophole", signed with Jets in 2011
3rd round #77 overall - TBL - F Alexander Killorn - signed with Lightning in 2012
3rd round #81 overall - NSH - F Ryan Thang - signed with Predators in 2010
3rd round #84 overall - WSH - F Philip DeSimone - was not signed, is on AHL deals since then
3rd round #87 overall - NJD - D Corbin McPherson - signed with Devils in 2012
3rd round #89 overall - BUF - F Corey Tropp - signed with Sabres in 2010
3rd round #90 overall - OTT - F Louie Caporusso - signed with Senators in 2011
2008
1st round # 7 overall - NSH - F Colin Wilson - signed with Predators in 2009
1st round #16 overall - BOS - F Joe Colborne - signed with Bruins in 2010
1st round #17 overall - ANA - D Jake Gardiner - traded to Maple Leafs and signed in 2011
1st round #29 overall - ATL - F Daultan Leveille - was not signed, is on an AHL deal since then
2nd round #36 overall - NYI - F Corey Trivino - was not signed, is in ECHL since then
2nd round #37 overall - CBJ - D Cody Goloubef - signed with Blue Jackets in 2010
2nd round #40 overall - NYI - D Aaron Ness - signed with Islanders in 2011
2nd round #42 overall - OTT - D Patrick Wiercioch - signed with Senators in 2010
2nd round #43 overall - ANA - D Justin Schultz - used "Schultz loophole", signed with Oilers in 2012
2nd round #45 overall - CAR - F Zac Dalpe - signed with Hurricanes in 2010
2nd round #51 overall - NYR - F Derek Stepan - signed with Rangers in 2010
2nd round #52 overall - NJD - D Brandon Burlon - signed with Devils in 2011
2nd round #56 overall - MTL - F Danny Kristo - signed with Canadiens in 2013
2nd round #60 overall - CHI - F Jimmy Hayes - signed with Blackhawks in 2011
3rd round #62 overall - SJS - F Justin Daniels - bust, never even played in the AHL
3rd round #63 overall - LAK - F Robbie Czarnik - left college, signed with Kings in 2011
3rd round #66 overall - NYI - F David Toews - left college, never signed, only 2 AHL games
3rd round #81 overall - BUF - D Corey Fienhage - left college, signed with Sabres in 2011
3rd round #86 overall - MTL - F Steve Quailer - signed with Canadiens in 2012
3rd round #91 overall - DET - D Max Nicastro - signed with Red Wings in 2012
2009
1st round #16 overall - MIN - D Nick Leddy - traded to Blackhawks and signed in 2010
1st round #18 overall - MTL - F Louis Leblanc - left college, signed with Canadiens in 2011
1st round #19 overall - NYR - F Chris Kreider - signed with Rangers in 2012
1st round #22 overall - VAN - F Jordan Schroeder - signed with Canucks in 2010
1st round #26 overall - ANA - F Kyle Palmieri - signed with Ducks in 2010
1st round #28 overall - CHI - D Dylan Olsen - signed with Blackhawks in 2010
2nd round #36 overall - PHX - F Chris Brown - signed with Coyotes in 2012
2nd round #38 overall - DAL - F Alex Chiasson - signed with Stars in 2012
2nd round #41 overall - NSH - F Zach Budish - signed with Predators in 2013
2nd round #43 overall - SJS - D William Wrenn - left college, never signed
2nd round #44 overall - FLA - F Drew Shore - signed with Panthers in 2012
2nd round #51 overall - CAR - D Brian Dumoulin - signed with Hurricanes in 2012
2nd round #56 overall - CBJ - F Kevin Lynch - not signed yet, deadline August 15
2nd round #61 overall - PIT - D Philip Samuelsson - signed with Penguins in 2011
3rd round #63 overall - PIT - F Ben Hanowski - traded to Calgary and signed in 2013
3rd round #67 overall - FLA - F Josh Birkholz - only signed to AHL deal
3rd round #69 overall - DAL - F Reilly Smith - signed with Stars in 2012
3rd round #79 overall - MTL - D Mac Bennett - goes back to college for his senior year
3rd round #83 overall - VAN - D Kevin Connauton - left college, signed with Canucks in 2010
3rd round #89 overall - CHI - F Daniel Delisle - not signed yet, deadline August 15
3rd round #91 overall - PHX - G Mike Lee - signed with Coyotes in 2012
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118 players total
88 players signed an ELC with the team they were drafted by = 74,6 %
9 players were traded and signed an ELC with another NHL team = 7,6 %
3 players are still NCAA eligible/rights until August 15 = 2,5 %
2 players used the "Schultz loophole" = 1,7 %
16 players didn't sign with their original team/"busts" = 13,6 %
As for these 118 players, we can see that 3 out of 4 college prospects signed with the team that drafted them. Please note that except for Bill Sweatt, none of the 16 players that didn't sign or weren't offered an ELC has since signed with an NHL team - most of them have retired, defected to Europe or settled for a journeyman career in the AHL and ECHL.
Even if there will always be a spark of uncertainty until our high-end college prospects actually sign, the numbers would suggest that there is not much to worry about. After slowly forgetting about Erixon, the Corban Knight situation, although beneficial for the Flames, was another reminder to the fans that those things are never certain until the are actually done, but at this point, it also seems premature to worry about such nightmares that are in either case at least a year away. Right now, with a rebuild in its early stages and an arena affected by the horrible floods, the Flames and their fans to have more pressing concerns.
